bluegargantua: (Default)
[personal profile] bluegargantua
So, I've been hearing a lot recently among democratic candidates about "electability" -- the idea that there's this magic something that makes you appeal to voters and will get you the votes you need to win.

And I realized this weekend that it's a complete non-issue.

Why? Because, technically speaking, Democrats won the election -- the popular vote anyway. This time around there's no Green Party spoiler and the people who voted for Nader are unlikely to vote for Bush. Further, I think that the Florida debacle followed by these past four years have really polarized the electorate (I mean, even more so). There's a hell of a lot of people who'd rather see a Yellow Dog in office than see Bush re-elected. "Electability" isn't really a factor here -- just try not to be a complete drooling idiot and you've probably got at least 50% of the populace lined up to vote for you.

True, it's not a popular vote, it's an electorial dealie so there's some merit in saying that you need to attract voters from all states because you can't just count on California to carry you to victory, but still -- the four leading Democratic candidates are all viable enough. I don't much care for Kerry, but if he's the opposition, he's probably getting my vote because he's the lesser of two evils. Which, I admit, sucks as far as voting policy goes, but it's a case of political triage.

Tom

[EDIT: I could not, in good conscience, vote for Lieberman if he were the Democratic Candidate -- have you seen him? The guy is Senator Palpatine! Even in this time of peril for our republic, I can't vote for Palpatine.]

Date: 2004-01-26 07:56 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mikecap.livejournal.com
The problem is that electorally things are weighed differently - Arnold is now governor of CA. Bush will have 20% of the electoral votes just with Texas, California, and Florida; he'll undoubtedly carry the states with big military contracts. Whatever Democrat is selected will need to carry practically every other single state in order to make it a close race... "electability" is actually another word for "appeal" - the Dem candidate will have to appeal to the majority of votes in practically 30-35 states...

Date: 2004-01-26 08:35 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mikecap.livejournal.com
It is winner take all. That's why the three states that Bush will carry are so important. You have to carry around ten other states just to make up for those three... and then it's a battle for the remaining 37, but Bush doesn't need to have as much broad appeal.

Date: 2004-01-26 10:37 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] buddhagrrl.livejournal.com
I think Bush is as likely to win California as he is to win Massachusetts, which is to say not very.

I can't stand the waiting. I want it to be November. If bush wins I expect I'll be locked in my bathroom crying and puking at the same time, and possibly clawing out my eyeballs. I can't stand this amount of anxiety being built up for so many months - let's just get it over with!

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